Ibizavs
Real Madrid II
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · 10/9/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ibiza · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Ibiza 0-0 Real Madrid II, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Ibiza 1-1 Real Madrid II
Original prediction
Ibiza
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 06:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.17 | 41.9% | 40.1% | -1.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.18 | 28.6% | 30.8% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 3.08 | 29.5% | 29.1% | -0.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.18 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.8 pts
Projected Score
Ibiza 0–0 Real Madrid II
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Ibiza
Probability
40.1%
Model confidence
40.1%
Ibiza has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
IbizaWLLWW
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Real Madrid IIWLDLW
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
IbizaReal Madrid II
33.3Attack0.0
100.0Defence100.0
100.0Form33.3
80.3Power45.3
1.09xG0.72