Ibiza Islas Pitiusasvs
Formentera
COMPLETEDSpain · Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · 10/4/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (8%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2-0 Formentera
Original prediction
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 October 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.85 | 49.2% | 36.9% | -12.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.28 | 27.7% | 26.6% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 3.95 | 23.0% | 36.4% | 13.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.85 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–28%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
Probability
36.9%
Model confidence
36.9%
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20