Šiauliaivs
Suduva Marijampole
COMPLETEDLithuania · A Lyga · 8/30/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Suduva Marijampole · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Šiauliai 0-2 Suduva Marijampole, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Šiauliai 1-2 Suduva Marijampole
Original prediction
Suduva Marijampole
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.91 | 15.2% | 8.4% | -6.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.07 | 22.1% | 17.0% | -5.1 pts |
| Away | 1.43 | 62.8% | 74.6% | 11.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.43 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.9 pts
Projected Score
Šiauliai 0–2 Suduva Marijampole
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Suduva Marijampole
Probability
74.6%
Model confidence
74.6%
Suduva Marijampole has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 12 · avg 1.00/2.40
GF 12 · GA 1 · avg 2.40/0.20