Šiauliaivs
Kauno Žalgiris
COMPLETEDLithuania · A Lyga · 9/20/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kauno Žalgiris · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Projected score: Šiauliai 0-2 Kauno Žalgiris, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Šiauliai 0-2 Kauno Žalgiris
Original prediction
Kauno Žalgiris
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 9.00 | 10.0% | 5.4% | -4.5 pts |
| Draw | 5.36 | 16.8% | 12.7% | -4.0 pts |
| Away | 1.23 | 73.3% | 81.9% | 8.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.23 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.6 pts
Projected Score
Šiauliai 0–2 Kauno Žalgiris
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Kauno Žalgiris
Probability
81.9%
Model confidence
81.9%
Kauno Žalgiris has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 7 · avg 0.20/1.40
GF 14 · GA 4 · avg 2.80/0.80