ŠiauliaivsFS Jelgava

Šiauliai are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (WLLLD), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.20 conceded, while FS Jelgava are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LWLDD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Šiauliai hold an 11.6-point power-rating edge (44.7 v 33.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 46.5% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Šiauliai holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 45% BTTS chance and 45% for over 2.5 goals.