Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hwaseong · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (13%), 2-0 (13%), 1-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hwaseong 2-1 Cheongju
Original prediction
Hwaseong
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.84 | 49.7% | 61.7% | 12.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.43 | 26.6% | 22.0% | -4.6 pts |
| Away | 3.84 | 23.8% | 16.3% | -7.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.84 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–013%
- 2.2–013%
- 3.1–111%
Predicted outcome
Hwaseong
Probability
61.7%
Model confidence
61.7%
Hwaseong has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
HwaseongLDDWD
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
CheongjuDWLDL
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
HwaseongCheongju
51.5Attack39.4
65.2Defence47.0
54.5Form34.8
58.1Power43.0
1.84xG0.72