Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Huracan are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DDLDW), averaging 0.60 scored and 0.60 conceded, while Emelec are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (LDDDL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Emelec hold a 10.9-point power-rating edge (41.6 v 52.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 41.3% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 34% BTTS chance and 24% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
41.3%
Model confidence
41.3%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 3 · avg 0.60/0.60
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60