Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ukraine · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (11%), 0-2 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hungary 0-1 Ukraine
Original prediction
Ukraine
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.38 | 39.5% | 26.8% | -12.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.14 | 29.9% | 26.0% | -3.9 pts |
| Away | 3.06 | 30.6% | 47.2% | 16.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.06 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
16.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–211%
Predicted outcome
Ukraine
Probability
47.2%
Model confidence
47.2%
Ukraine has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
HungaryWWDWW
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
UkraineLWWWL
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
HungaryUkraine
20.8Attack45.8
29.2Defence50.0
25.0Form45.8
28.0Power49.4
0.91xG1.77