Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hungary · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 1-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hungary 1-0 Georgia
Original prediction
Hungary
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 00:31 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.25 | 41.9% | 38.7% | -3.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.20 | 29.5% | 30.0% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 3.30 | 28.6% | 31.3% | 2.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.25 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.1–013%
Predicted outcome
Hungary
Probability
38.7%
Model confidence
38.7%
Hungary has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
HungaryDLWWD
GF 5 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
GeorgiaDLWDW
GF 5 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
HungaryGeorgia
0.0Attack0.0
83.3Defence83.3
16.7Form16.7
36.5Power36.5
1.13xG0.96