Hungary U21vs
Lithuania U21
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · 10/1/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hungary U21 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hungary U21 2-1 Lithuania U21
Original prediction
Hungary U21
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 00:28 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.43 | 64.1% | 61.5% | -2.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.24 | 21.6% | 21.0% | -0.6 pts |
| Away | 6.37 | 14.4% | 17.5% | 3.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.43 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–010%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Hungary U21
Probability
61.5%
Model confidence
61.5%
Hungary U21 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
GF 2 · GA 11 · avg 0.40/2.20