Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Hrvace 0-0 Kustosija, with an exact score probability of 25%.
Prediction record
Final result
Hrvace 1-2 Kustosija
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:33 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.23 | 40.7% | 29.8% | -10.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.11 | 29.2% | 32.5% | 3.4 pts |
| Away | 3.02 | 30.1% | 37.7% | 7.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.4 pts
Projected Score
Hrvace 0–0 Kustosija
Exact score probability: 25%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
32.5%
Model confidence
37.7%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
HrvaceLWWDL
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
KustosijaDLWLD
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
HrvaceKustosija
29.2Attack16.7
45.8Defence75.0
29.2Form29.2
36.6Power43.3
0.59xG0.83