Hørsholm-Usserødvs
Aarhus Fremad
COMPLETEDDenmark · DBU Pokalen · 9/16/2026, 2:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aarhus Fremad · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hørsholm-Usserød 1-1 Aarhus Fremad
Original prediction
Aarhus Fremad
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 2 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 8.30 | 10.9% | 34.3% | 23.4 pts |
| Draw | 5.24 | 17.2% | 22.5% | 5.3 pts |
| Away | 1.25 | 71.9% | 43.2% | -28.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 4.24 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-28.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–18%
- 2.2–27%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
Aarhus Fremad
Probability
43.2%
Model confidence
43.2%
Aarhus Fremad has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 15 · GA 13 · avg 3.00/2.60
GF 3 · GA 1 · avg 0.60/0.20