Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hércules · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (11%), 0-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hércules 0-0 Real Jaén
Original prediction
Hércules
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.70 | 53.5% | 38.4% | -15.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.41 | 26.7% | 29.1% | 2.4 pts |
| Away | 4.60 | 19.8% | 32.5% | 12.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.41 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.0–111%
Predicted outcome
Hércules
Probability
38.4%
Model confidence
38.4%
Hércules has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
HérculesWWWLL
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Real JaénLWWDW
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
HérculesReal Jaén
0.0Attack66.7
33.3Defence33.3
0.0Form33.3
15.3Power45.3
1.09xG1.22