Hérculesvs
Atlético Madrid II
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · 9/6/2026, 4:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atlético Madrid II · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 0-1 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hércules 0-2 Atlético Madrid II
Original prediction
Atlético Madrid II
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.16 | 42.2% | 32.9% | -9.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.15 | 28.9% | 28.3% | -0.6 pts |
| Away | 3.16 | 28.9% | 38.8% | 9.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.16 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.0–113%
Predicted outcome
Atlético Madrid II
Probability
38.8%
Model confidence
38.8%
Atlético Madrid II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80