Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
HPS W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
HPS W are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LLWWW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded, while KuPS W are 5W-0D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWW), averaging 3.00 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and KuPS W hold a 2.5-point power-rating edge (58.4 v 60.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 11.3% in the Kansallinen Liiga, while HPS W holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 66% BTTS chance and 63% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
HPS W
Probability
40.2%
Model confidence
11.3%
HPS W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
GF 15 · GA 6 · avg 3.00/1.20