Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
HPS W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
HPS W are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLLDW), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Ilves are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWDWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and HPS W hold a 9.1-point power-rating edge (58.4 v 49.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 10.2% in the Kansallinen Liiga, while HPS W holds the strongest overall chance at 56% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 63% BTTS chance and 65% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
HPS W
Probability
56.1%
Model confidence
10.2%
HPS W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00