Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
PPJ · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (7%), 2-3 (6%), 3-2 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
HPS 1-4 PPJ
Original prediction
PPJ
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.71 | 33.3% | 37.1% | 3.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.82 | 23.6% | 19.1% | -4.5 pts |
| Away | 2.09 | 43.1% | 43.8% | 0.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.09 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–27%
- 2.2–36%
- 3.3–26%
Predicted outcome
PPJ
Probability
43.8%
Model confidence
43.8%
PPJ has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
HPSDLLLD
GF 5 · GA 13 · avg 1.00/2.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
PPJWDLWD
GF 12 · GA 11 · avg 2.40/2.20
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
HPSPPJ
68.3Attack63.3
26.7Defence45.0
43.3Form45.0
47.4Power51.6
2.48xG2.67