Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
PEPO · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (8%), 1-3 (8%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
HPS 1-1 PEPO
Original prediction
PEPO
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.98 | 22.7% | 22.4% | -0.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.31 | 21.0% | 17.5% | -3.5 pts |
| Away | 1.61 | 56.3% | 60.1% | 3.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.31 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–28%
- 2.1–38%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
PEPO
Probability
60.1%
Model confidence
60.1%
PEPO has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
HPSLDLLL
GF 4 · GA 15 · avg 0.80/3.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
PEPOWDDWW
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
HPSPEPO
66.7Attack61.9
23.8Defence60.3
41.3Form66.7
45.4Power63.8
1.67xG2.83