Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
PEPO · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-2
HPS are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LDLWL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.60 conceded, while PEPO are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWDWW), averaging 2.00 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and PEPO hold a 6.2-point power-rating edge (55.3 v 61.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 7.4% in the Kakkonen - Lohko A, while PEPO holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 81% BTTS chance and 83% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
PEPO
Probability
41.8%
Model confidence
7.4%
PEPO has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80