Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hoyvík · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (7%), 3-2 (6%), 2-3 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hoyvík 2-0 NSÍ II
Original prediction
Hoyvík
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.37 | 37.1% | 41.3% | 4.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.66 | 24.1% | 19.1% | -5.0 pts |
| Away | 2.27 | 38.8% | 39.6% | 0.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.37 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–27%
- 2.3–26%
- 3.2–36%
Predicted outcome
Hoyvík
Probability
41.3%
Model confidence
41.3%
Hoyvík has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
HoyvíkLDLWL
GF 7 · GA 16 · avg 1.40/3.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
NSÍ IIDLLWL
GF 10 · GA 15 · avg 2.00/3.00
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
HoyvíkNSÍ II
52.0Attack48.0
0.0Defence24.0
30.7Form34.7
30.4Power36.7
2.60xG2.52