Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Houtvenne · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Houtvenne 1-1 Merelbeke
Original prediction
Houtvenne
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 October 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.90 | 47.3% | 47.9% | 0.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.55 | 25.3% | 24.6% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 3.27 | 27.4% | 27.5% | 0.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.55 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Houtvenne
Probability
47.9%
Model confidence
47.9%
Houtvenne has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
HoutvenneWWLWL
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
MerelbekeWLDDL
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
HoutvenneMerelbeke
100.0Attack66.7
66.7Defence66.7
100.0Form66.7
88.7Power67.2
1.96xG1.27