GGOALVIO

USA · Major League Soccer · 4/23/2026, 12:30:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Houston Dynamo · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Mediumconfidence

Houston Dynamo are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WLLLW), averaging 1.80 scored and 2.60 conceded, while San Diego are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LLLDD), averaging 1.60 scored and 2.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Houston Dynamo hold an 8.4-point power-rating edge (56.2 v 47.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 11.4% in the Major League Soccer, while Houston Dynamo holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 64% BTTS chance and 62% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Houston Dynamo

Probability

45.4%

Model confidence

11.4%

Houston Dynamo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Houston DynamoWLLLW

GF 9 · GA 13 · avg 1.80/2.60

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
San DiegoLLLDD

GF 8 · GA 14 · avg 1.60/2.80

BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
Houston DynamoSan Diego
50.0Attack59.3
55.6Defence46.3
59.3Form38.9
56.2Power47.8
1.80xG1.41
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