Horshamvs
Maidstone Utd
COMPLETEDEngland · National League - South · 10/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Maidstone Utd · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (15%), 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Horsham 1-2 Maidstone Utd
Original prediction
Maidstone Utd
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.10 | 29.4% | 29.0% | -0.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.43 | 26.6% | 29.6% | 3.1 pts |
| Away | 2.07 | 44.1% | 41.3% | -2.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.07 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–115%
- 2.1–114%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Maidstone Utd
Probability
41.3%
Model confidence
41.3%
Maidstone Utd has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40