Horshamvs
Chesham United
COMPLETEDEngland · National League - South · 9/12/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Horsham · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Horsham 1-4 Chesham United
Original prediction
Horsham
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.05 | 44.0% | 42.4% | -1.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 26.0% | 28.6% | 2.6 pts |
| Away | 3.01 | 30.0% | 29.1% | -0.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Horsham
Probability
42.4%
Model confidence
42.4%
Horsham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40