Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kassel · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-2
Hornau are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LDLWL), averaging 2.00 scored and 3.20 conceded, while Kassel are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LLWWD), averaging 3.60 scored and 3.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 10 of those 10 games and 9 passed 2.5 goals, and Hornau hold a 5.1-point power-rating edge (32.7 v 27.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 41.7% in the Oberliga - Hessen, while Kassel holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 81% BTTS chance and 83% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Kassel
Probability
41.7%
Model confidence
41.7%
Kassel has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 16 · avg 2.00/3.20
GF 18 · GA 17 · avg 3.60/3.40