Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Friedberg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-3
Hornau are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (WLDDL), averaging 2.40 scored and 3.20 conceded, while Friedberg are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LDWLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Friedberg hold a 40.1-point power-rating edge (32.7 v 72.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-3 the most likely exact scoreline at 65.7% in the Oberliga - Hessen, while Friedberg holds the strongest overall chance at 66% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 73% BTTS chance and 81% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Friedberg
Probability
65.7%
Model confidence
65.7%
Friedberg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 16 · avg 2.40/3.20
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60