Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fernwald · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-2
Hornau are 2W-1D-1L in their last 4 (LWWD), averaging 3.50 scored and 1.50 conceded, while Fernwald are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWWDL), averaging 2.80 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 9 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Fernwald hold a 16.1-point power-rating edge (32.7 v 48.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 52.8% in the Oberliga - Hessen, while Fernwald holds the strongest overall chance at 53% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 73% BTTS chance and 76% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Fernwald
Probability
52.8%
Model confidence
52.8%
Fernwald has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 6 · avg 3.50/1.50
GF 14 · GA 9 · avg 2.80/1.80