Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Baunatal · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Hornau are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LWLLL), averaging 1.60 scored and 3.00 conceded, while Baunatal are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LDLWW), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Hornau hold a 3.2-point power-rating edge (32.7 v 29.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 42.9% in the Oberliga - Hessen, while Baunatal holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 76% BTTS chance and 77% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Baunatal
Probability
42.9%
Model confidence
42.9%
Baunatal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 15 · avg 1.60/3.00
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80