Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
ACV · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hoogeveen 1-4 ACV
Original prediction
ACV
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 17 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.74 | 32.8% | 32.6% | -0.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.88 | 23.1% | 26.6% | 3.5 pts |
| Away | 2.03 | 44.1% | 40.9% | -3.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.03 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
ACV
Probability
40.9%
Model confidence
40.9%
ACV has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
HoogeveenLWWLL
GF 12 · GA 10 · avg 2.40/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
ACVDLWWW
GF 12 · GA 8 · avg 2.40/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
HoogeveenACV
50.0Attack100.0
50.0Defence100.0
50.0Form100.0
50.0Power97.0
1.35xG1.68