Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Honka · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-0 (10%), 2-0 (10%), 3-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Honka 1-1 P-Iirot
Original prediction
Honka
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.16 | 78.4% | 78.9% | 0.5 pts |
| Draw | 6.83 | 13.3% | 12.6% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 10.87 | 8.3% | 8.5% | 0.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 5.83 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–010%
- 2.2–010%
- 3.3–19%
Predicted outcome
Honka
Probability
78.9%
Model confidence
78.9%
Honka has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
HonkaWWWLW
GF 16 · GA 6 · avg 3.20/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
P-IirotLLWWW
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
HonkaP-Iirot
100.0Attack55.6
68.5Defence53.7
79.6Form50.0
79.4Power52.9
3.05xG0.93