Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Honka · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Honka 2-0 ÅIFK
Original prediction
Honka
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 13 October 2026 at 01:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.28 | 70.6% | 52.9% | -17.6 pts |
| Draw | 5.02 | 18.0% | 23.2% | 5.2 pts |
| Away | 7.87 | 11.5% | 23.9% | 12.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.28 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-17.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Honka
Probability
52.9%
Model confidence
52.9%
Honka has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
HonkaWWDWL
GF 7 · GA 2 · avg 1.40/0.40
BTTS 0/5O2.5 2/5
ÅIFKLLWLW
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
HonkaÅIFK
44.4Attack33.3
100.0Defence66.7
77.8Form33.3
74.7Power44.0
1.99xG1.29