Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hong Kong · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hong Kong 2-0 Cambodia
Original prediction
Hong Kong
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.43 | 63.9% | 51.8% | -12.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.50 | 20.3% | 23.8% | 3.5 pts |
| Away | 5.82 | 15.7% | 24.4% | 8.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.43 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–07%
Predicted outcome
Hong Kong
Probability
51.8%
Model confidence
51.8%
Hong Kong has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Hong KongWWLWD
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
CambodiaDWLWL
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Hong KongCambodia
100.0Attack50.0
100.0Defence66.7
100.0Form66.7
98.0Power64.8
2.18xG1.33