Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hong Kong · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (11%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hong Kong 2-0 Brunei
Original prediction
Hong Kong
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.02 | 93.2% | 59.5% | -33.7 pts |
| Draw | 20.00 | 4.8% | 21.1% | 16.4 pts |
| Away | 46.00 | 2.1% | 19.4% | 17.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.02 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-33.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–011%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Hong Kong
Probability
59.5%
Model confidence
59.5%
Hong Kong has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Hong KongWLWDD
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
BruneiLLLLL
GF 2 · GA 21 · avg 0.40/4.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
Hong KongBrunei
100.0Attack33.3
100.0Defence0.0
100.0Form0.0
97.0Power15.3
1.86xG0.93