Hong Kong U23vs
Thailand U23
COMPLETEDWorld · Asian Games · 9/20/2026, 7:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Thailand U23 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hong Kong U23 1-5 Thailand U23
Original prediction
Thailand U23
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.42 | 14.0% | 29.8% | 15.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.78 | 18.8% | 25.5% | 6.6 pts |
| Away | 1.34 | 67.2% | 44.8% | -22.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.34 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-22.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Thailand U23
Probability
44.8%
Model confidence
44.8%
Thailand U23 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 5 · avg 0.67/1.67
GF 9 · GA 13 · avg 1.80/2.60