Hong Kong FCvs
Warriors
COMPLETEDHong-Kong · Premier League · 9/6/2026, 8:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Warriors · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 1-3 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Hong Kong FC 0-3 Warriors
Original prediction
Warriors
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 16.07 | 5.7% | 23.2% | 17.5 pts |
| Draw | 8.06 | 11.3% | 22.0% | 10.7 pts |
| Away | 1.10 | 83.0% | 54.8% | -28.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.10 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-28.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–29%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.1–37%
Predicted outcome
Warriors
Probability
54.8%
Model confidence
54.8%
Warriors has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20