Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Honduras · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Honduras 2-3 Suriname
Original prediction
Honduras
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 18:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.64 | 56.0% | 43.6% | -12.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.52 | 26.1% | 26.7% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 5.12 | 17.9% | 29.7% | 11.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Honduras
Probability
43.6%
Model confidence
43.6%
Honduras has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
HondurasLDLLD
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
SurinameD
GF 1 · GA 1 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 1/1O2.5 0/1
HondurasSuriname
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.94xG1.66