Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Jamaica · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Honduras 1-1 Jamaica
Original prediction
Jamaica
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 16 September 2026 at 18:21 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.01 | 45.6% | 36.2% | -9.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.19 | 28.7% | 26.8% | -1.9 pts |
| Away | 3.57 | 25.7% | 37.0% | 11.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.19 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Jamaica
Probability
37.0%
Model confidence
37.0%
Jamaica has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
HondurasLWLLD
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
JamaicaWLWDL
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
HondurasJamaica
44.4Attack55.6
44.4Defence66.7
33.3Form66.7
43.7Power64.7
1.41xG1.68