Home Unitedvs
BG Pathum United
COMPLETEDWorld · AFC Champions League Two · 9/17/2026, 10:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Home United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 3-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Home United 1-1 BG Pathum United
Original prediction
Home United
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 07:57 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.92 | 47.3% | 60.6% | 13.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.64 | 25.0% | 20.8% | -4.2 pts |
| Away | 3.28 | 27.7% | 18.6% | -9.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.64 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.3–09%
Predicted outcome
Home United
Probability
60.6%
Model confidence
60.6%
Home United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60