Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Holywell · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 3-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Holywell 1-1 Trefelin
Original prediction
Holywell
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.69 | 33.6% | 46.3% | 12.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.51 | 25.7% | 23.8% | -1.9 pts |
| Away | 2.21 | 40.8% | 29.9% | -10.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.51 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.3–17%
Predicted outcome
Holywell
Probability
46.3%
Model confidence
46.3%
Holywell has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
HolywellLLLLL
GF 8 · GA 20 · avg 1.60/4.00
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
TrefelinLDLLL
GF 2 · GA 15 · avg 0.40/3.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
HolywellTrefelin
50.0Attack11.1
0.0Defence5.6
0.0Form5.6
20.1Power12.4
2.31xG1.41