Holywellvs
The New Saints
COMPLETEDWales · Premier League · 10/9/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
The New Saints · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Projected score: Holywell 0-4 The New Saints, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Holywell 1-6 The New Saints
Original prediction
The New Saints
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 42.86 | 2.2% | 6.5% | 4.3 pts |
| Draw | 13.64 | 6.8% | 9.6% | 2.7 pts |
| Away | 1.03 | 91.0% | 83.9% | -7.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.03 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.1 pts
Projected Score
Holywell 0–4 The New Saints
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
The New Saints
Probability
83.9%
Model confidence
83.9%
The New Saints has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 11 · avg 0.60/2.20
GF 21 · GA 2 · avg 4.20/0.40