Holywellvs
Colwyn Bay
COMPLETEDWales · Premier League · 9/15/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Colwyn Bay · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Holywell 0-5 Colwyn Bay
Original prediction
Colwyn Bay
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 7.36 | 12.2% | 24.5% | 12.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.69 | 19.1% | 22.9% | 3.7 pts |
| Away | 1.31 | 68.7% | 52.6% | -16.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.31 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-16.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–27%
Predicted outcome
Colwyn Bay
Probability
52.6%
Model confidence
52.6%
Colwyn Bay has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 17 · avg 1.60/3.40
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40