Holywellvs
Caernarfon Town
COMPLETEDWales · Premier League · 8/28/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Caernarfon Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Holywell 3-5 Caernarfon Town
Original prediction
Caernarfon Town
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 7.73 | 11.7% | 18.4% | 6.8 pts |
| Draw | 5.30 | 17.0% | 21.2% | 4.2 pts |
| Away | 1.26 | 71.3% | 60.4% | -10.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.26 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–210%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Caernarfon Town
Probability
60.4%
Model confidence
60.4%
Caernarfon Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 16 · avg 1.00/3.20
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60