Holywellvs
Briton Ferry
COMPLETEDWales · Premier League · 9/26/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Briton Ferry · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Holywell 1-1 Briton Ferry
Original prediction
Briton Ferry
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 03:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.30 | 20.9% | 32.9% | 12.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.01 | 22.4% | 24.6% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 1.58 | 56.7% | 42.6% | -14.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.01 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Briton Ferry
Probability
42.6%
Model confidence
42.6%
Briton Ferry has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 15 · avg 0.80/3.00
GF 5 · GA 13 · avg 1.00/2.60