Holstein Kielvs
VfL Osnabruck
COMPLETEDGermany · 2. Bundesliga · 9/19/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Holstein Kiel · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Holstein Kiel 1-1 VfL Osnabruck
Original prediction
Holstein Kiel
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:36 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.73 | 53.8% | 43.6% | -10.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.94 | 23.6% | 23.9% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 4.12 | 22.6% | 32.4% | 9.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.94 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Holstein Kiel
Probability
43.6%
Model confidence
43.6%
Holstein Kiel has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 11 · GA 11 · avg 2.20/2.20