Holstein Kielvs
Dynamo Dresden
COMPLETEDGermany · 2. Bundesliga · 10/25/2026, 12:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Holstein Kiel · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Holstein Kiel 3-0 Dynamo Dresden
Original prediction
Holstein Kiel
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:35 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.29 | 40.8% | 38.9% | -1.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.64 | 25.6% | 25.8% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 2.77 | 33.6% | 35.3% | 1.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.29 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Holstein Kiel
Probability
38.9%
Model confidence
38.9%
Holstein Kiel has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40