Holstein Kielvs
1. FC Nürnberg
COMPLETEDGermany · 2. Bundesliga · 9/5/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
1. FC Nürnberg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Holstein Kiel 2-2 1. FC Nürnberg
Original prediction
1. FC Nürnberg
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.29 | 40.8% | 29.7% | -11.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.55 | 26.3% | 24.8% | -1.5 pts |
| Away | 2.84 | 32.9% | 45.6% | 12.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.55 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
1. FC Nürnberg
Probability
45.6%
Model confidence
45.6%
1. FC Nürnberg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
GF 14 · GA 5 · avg 2.80/1.00