Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Holstebro · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 3-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Holstebro 1-3 Ishøj
Original prediction
Holstebro
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 9 September 2026 at 18:38 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.02 | 44.5% | 63.1% | 18.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.63 | 24.8% | 18.9% | -5.9 pts |
| Away | 2.93 | 30.7% | 18.1% | -12.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
18.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–010%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.3–09%
Predicted outcome
Holstebro
Probability
63.1%
Model confidence
63.1%
Holstebro has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
HolstebroLWLLW
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
IshøjWLLLL
GF 4 · GA 13 · avg 0.80/2.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
HolstebroIshøj
62.5Attack16.7
37.5Defence33.3
54.2Form16.7
52.2Power25.9
2.68xG0.98