Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Frem · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Holstebro 3-2 Frem
Original prediction
Frem
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.20 | 28.1% | 37.3% | 9.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.52 | 25.6% | 23.2% | -2.4 pts |
| Away | 1.95 | 46.3% | 39.5% | -6.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Frem
Probability
39.5%
Model confidence
39.5%
Frem has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
HolstebroLLWWD
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
FremLWDWW
GF 13 · GA 8 · avg 2.60/1.60
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
HolstebroFrem
66.7Attack66.7
38.9Defence50.0
55.6Form44.4
53.8Power53.9
1.97xG1.87