Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kozlovice · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 0-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Holešov 1-1 Kozlovice
Original prediction
Kozlovice
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.51 | 25.7% | 24.5% | -1.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.63 | 24.8% | 22.2% | -2.7 pts |
| Away | 1.82 | 49.5% | 53.3% | 3.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.63 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–210%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.0–27%
Predicted outcome
Kozlovice
Probability
53.3%
Model confidence
53.3%
Kozlovice has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
HolešovDLLDW
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
KozloviceWLWWW
GF 13 · GA 9 · avg 2.60/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
HolešovKozlovice
61.9Attack100.0
57.1Defence71.4
47.6Form90.5
56.2Power85.6
1.31xG2.21