Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Hobro · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 2-0
Hobro are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLWWL), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Naestved are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LLLLD), averaging 0.60 scored and 2.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Hobro hold a 24.1-point power-rating edge (62.6 v 38.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 58.9% in the 1. Division, while Hobro holds the strongest overall chance at 59% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 47% BTTS chance and 48% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Hobro
Probability
58.9%
Model confidence
58.9%
Hobro has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
GF 3 · GA 12 · avg 0.60/2.40